Google Quantum AI published a white paper this week revealing that a quantum computer with 500,000 qubits could crack Bitcoin’s ECDSA encryption in just nine minutes. That is shorter than Bitcoin’s average block confirmation time. The crypto world took notice fast.
But Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) jumped in quickly. His message? Calm down.
Google’s Warning: The Quantum Threat Is Closer Than You Think
Until recently, most experts assumed breaking Bitcoin’s ECDSA encryption would need millions of qubits. Google’s paper slashed that estimate by roughly 20 times.
At a 41% success rate within that nine-minute window, a quantum attacker could intercept a Bitcoin transaction before it even confirms on-chain.
The highest-risk targets are legacy Bitcoin addresses where public keys are already visible on the blockchain. An estimated 2.3 million BTC stored in these older address types are permanently exposed to what researchers call “at-rest attacks.” No transaction needed. The key is already out there.
Google specifically flagged these dormant assets as locked behind P2PK scripts, the oldest and most quantum-vulnerable script type, where the public key sits directly on-chain with no hash layer protecting it.
Google has set a 2029 internal deadline for its own post-quantum migration. Dragonfly Capital’s Haseeb Qureshi called the findings “serious” and said all blockchains need transition plans now.
Also Read: How To Make Your Crypto Wallet Quantum-Resistant?
CZ Responds: “No Need to Panic”
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao took to X shortly after the paper dropped. His take was direct: the quantum threat is manageable.
“At a high level, all crypto has to do is upgrade to quantum-resistant algorithms. So, no need to panic,” he wrote.
He acknowledged the harder part though. Organising upgrades across decentralised networks is messy. Debates over which algorithms to adopt will likely cause forks. “Some dead projects may not upgrade at all,” he said, suggesting that might actually be a good way to clean out the market.
His fundamental position: “It’s always easier to encrypt than decrypt. More computing power is always good. Crypto will stay, post quantum.”
The Satoshi Problem
CZ also flagged one of the thorniest issues in this whole debate, Satoshi’s estimated 1 million BTC stash.
If those coins never move, they sit behind P2PK scripts and become prime targets the moment a capable quantum computer exists. CZ suggested the community may eventually need to lock or effectively burn those addresses before the first hacker gets there.
It’s a governance nightmare. Who decides? How do you build consensus to freeze an address that may belong to Bitcoin’s own creator?
Satoshi himself actually addressed this back in 2010. “If it happens gradually, we can still transition to something stronger. When you run the upgraded software for the first time, it will re-sign all your money with the new, stronger algorithm,” he wrote in an old forum post, in what remains his only known public comment on quantum risk.
Also Read: What Is Quantum Resistant Ledger?
Not Everyone Is Convinced the Quantum Threat Is Urgent
Bitcoin research outlet TFTC pushed back on the panic. They pointed out that Google didn’t actually run the attack. The paper published a zero-knowledge proof that the math works; it didn’t demonstrate a live exploit.
They also noted that current quantum computers are still a factor of 100,000 below what’s required to break elliptic-curve cryptography in practice.
Crypto entrepreneur Nic Carter was more blunt. He said there is currently no BIP, no proposed post-quantum scheme, no roadmap, and most major Bitcoin developers still deny the risk exists at a meaningful level.
That community divide is arguably the biggest obstacle, not the technology itself.
What Developers Are Actually Building Against the Quantum Threat
Some Bitcoin developers aren’t waiting. Work is already underway on “SHRIMPS” – post-quantum signatures reportedly three times smaller than NIST standards, built to fit within Bitcoin’s block space constraints.
BIP-360, a quantum-resistant output type, is already live on testnet. That’s real progress, even if it’s early.
But Project Eleven, which has been tracking the quantum threat closely, raised a critical point. Every single Bitcoin user would still need to manually move their funds. “Your coins are locked to an ECDSA keypair. No soft fork or protocol upgrade can do that on your behalf; that would break the security model,” they said.
That’s the part CZ’s optimism doesn’t fully solve. The technology to upgrade may exist. Getting millions of individual wallet holders to act before a quantum computer is capable enough to matter is a different problem entirely.
Also Read: Is Ethereum in Danger? Vitalik Warns Quantum Computers Could Break ECC by 2028
Is Bitcoin at risk from quantum computers right now?
No. Current quantum hardware is nowhere near capable enough. The realistic concern window opens closer to 2029, according to Google’s own internal estimates.
What wallets are most at risk from the quantum threat?
Legacy Bitcoin addresses that have already sent transactions and exposed their public keys face the highest risk. If you’ve never spent from an address, the public key isn’t visible yet.
What is BIP-360?
It’s a proposed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal introducing quantum-resistant output types. It’s currently live on testnet, meaning it’s being tested but not yet deployed on the main Bitcoin network.
Should I move my Bitcoin to a new wallet now?
Avoiding address reuse is a good practice regardless. Following Bitcoin developer updates on post-quantum timelines is advisable for anyone holding significant amounts long-term.
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