BTC Wipes One Year’s Gain. Is It the Start of a Bear Run?

Bitcoin traders woke up to a harsh reality this week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $95,000, erasing every dollar gained since the start of 2025. Just five weeks ago, BTC touched an all-time high of $126,000. Now it sits roughly 25% lower, with market watchers debating whether this signals the beginning of a prolonged downturn.

The numbers tell a brutal story. Bitcoin traded at $93,906 on November 18, marking its lowest point since May. The token briefly dipped below $92,000 during Asian trading hours before recovering slightly. For context, BTC closed 2024 at around $93,714. Every bit of momentum built through the first three quarters of this year has vanished.

What’s Behind the Bitcoin Bear Market?

Several factors converged to create this perfect storm. The most visible culprit has been massive outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. On November 14 alone, these funds hemorrhaged $869.86 million, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since their launch in January 2024. Over three weeks, investors pulled $2.64 billion from Bitcoin ETFs.

BlackRock’s IBIT fund, typically a steady buyer, saw a $256.6 million exit. Grayscale Mini Trust recorded the largest outflow at $318.2 million. The message from institutional players was clear: risk appetite had evaporated.

The macro picture made matters worse. Expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy abruptly changed. Some market players who had speculated on aggressive rate cuts were disappointed. Raised interest rates for an extended period of time provide less motivation for a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin. Speculative investments become less attractive as the risk-free Treasury, which is a positive yield, goes back up.

Tech stocks, often correlated with crypto, also stumbled. The AI trade that dominated 2025 started showing cracks. Concerns about astronomical valuations in companies like Nvidia and Palantir triggered selling across growth assets. Bitcoin, sharing many of the same investors, couldn’t escape the downdraft.

Long-Term Holders Start Selling

On-chain data reveals another concerning trend. Long-term Bitcoin holders, the so-called “strong hands” who typically weather volatility, distributed 815,000 BTC over 30 days. This represents one of the largest-selling waves from this cohort in recent cycles.

When even the most convinced believers start taking profits, it removes a critical pillar of support. These holders often accumulate during bear markets and distribute during bull runs. Their current behavior suggests they may have marked $126,000 as a cycle top.

The MicroStrategy Question

Michael Saylor’s company (now rebranded as Strategy) continues its Bitcoin buying spree. Between November 10 and 16, the firm added 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million. Total holdings now stand at 649,870 BTC, worth roughly $59.69 billion at current prices.

But here’s the twist: Strategy’s stock briefly traded below the value of its Bitcoin holdings this week. The company’s market cap hit $65.34 billion, while its Bitcoin stash was worth $66.59 billion. This created a rare negative premium, showing investors are now pricing in corporate risk rather than paying up for Bitcoin exposure through equity.

Where Retail Investors Disappeared

Perhaps the most telling signal comes from what’s not happening. Retail investors have vanished. Exchange data from major platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken shows larger average order sizes. Whales are buying while small traders stay away.

The crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 11 out of 100, deep into extreme fear territory. Historically, such readings can mark market bottoms. But they can also persist for months during prolonged downturns. The 2018-2019 bear market taught traders that fear can last much longer than anyone expects.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs held an average cost basis of around $90,146 per BTC. With the current price hovering near that level, aggregate unrealized profits across all ETF holders shrank to just $2.9 billion, or about 4.7%. When your cushion gets that thin, even modest further drops can trigger more selling.

Technical Breakdown and Death Cross Fears

Technical analysts point to several worrying patterns. Bitcoin broke below its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $111,958. The 50-day moving average is now below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross,” as traders call it. This will not always come true, but there is evidence that suggests this can lead to continued weakness. 

Important support levels to pay attention to are $90,000 and $85,000. Some analysts are warning of a test potentially down to $74,000-$82,000 if selling increases. On the other side, bulls need to gain back $100,000 and hold above $107,300 before it can even be considered a recovery.

Is This Different From Past Bitcoin Bear Markets?

Some market participants argue that this cycle breaks historical patterns. Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle tied to its halving events. The 2024 halving should have set up 2025 for sustained gains. Instead, we’re seeing classic bear market behavior just months after new all-time highs.

One key difference: institutional adoption. Spot ETFs brought billions in traditional finance capital. But institutions don’t follow the same playbook as crypto natives. They respond to Fed policy, portfolio allocation models, and quarterly performance metrics. This makes Bitcoin’s price action more correlated with traditional risk assets than ever before.

Jake Kennis of Nansen Research summed it up: “The selloff is a confluence of profit-taking by long-term holders, institutional outflows, macro uncertainty, and leveraged longs getting wiped out. What is clear is that the market has temporarily chosen a downward direction after a long period of consolidation.”

What Happens Next?

Three scenarios dominate trader discussions. The bearish case is that Bitcoin continues to grind lower towards $70,000 or below, in a move that would channel the 2018 playbook when BTC dropped 75% from its high. The neutral case is that Bitcoin consolidates in choppy price action between $90,000 and $105,000 for months on end. The bullish camp, though notably quieter lately, points to extreme fear readings as contrarian buy signals.

Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management sees opportunity. “The sentiment in crypto retail is pretty negative. They don’t want to live through another 50% pullback. People are front-running that by stepping out of the market.” His firm views the current levels as a buying chance for patient capital.

The Trump administration’s pro-crypto promises, which fueled optimism earlier this year, now feel like a distant memory. Tariff uncertainty and economic policy confusion have overshadowed any regulatory wins the industry might claim.

The Bigger Picture for Bitcoin Bear Market

Bitcoin’s 2025 performance now looks anemic compared to other assets. Gold climbed 55% year-to-date. The S&P 500 gained 16%. Even copper outperformed Bitcoin significantly. For fund managers measured against equity benchmarks, holding Bitcoin this year meant underperformance. That reality could drive further institutional exits.

Smaller altcoins suffered even more. A MarketVector index tracking the bottom half of the top 100 digital assets crashed 60% in 2025. When Bitcoin gets a cold, altcoins get pneumonia.

The market will eventually find a solid footing. Bitcoin has lived through histories of 50%+ corrections and has always set new all-time highs over longer time frames. The question is, how much pain will come before recovery starts, and are we looking at weeks, months, or years of weakness?

For now, the data suggest more caution ahead. Until ETF flows find their footing, macro headwinds diminish, and buyers feel confident doing business, Bitcoin has an uphill battle to fight. The bear market thesis has momentum. Whether it proves correct will define crypto trading for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.

At the time of writing the article, BTC is trading at $89,985 after a loss of 5.30% in the past 24 hours.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile and carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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