Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry: Will $4.5 Billion at Stake Shake the Market?

Today, December 12, 2025, the Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry is set to impact the market with nearly $4.5 billion in options contracts expiring. With the existing macro-economic uncertainties,  thin year-end liquidity, and cautious market sentiment, traders are monitoring this prominent event as the short-term price movements are dependent on the expiry, with the two currencies being at critical price levels. 

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at 92,505, with  $1.84T market cap and its “max pain” level around $90,000. Ethereum is also priced at $3,254, and its max pain level is $3,100. These points are significant as they show where most of the options are likely to expire worthless, resulting in the largest losses to the option holders.

Balanced Positions as Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Approaches

As the Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry approaches, a near-balanced position in call and put contracts is imminent for both cryptocurrencies. The open interest in Bitcoin is 39,826 contracts, including 18,974 calls and 20,852 puts, with a put to call ratio of 1.10 and a national value of roughly $3.7 billion. According to Deribit analysts “The clustering around $90,000 reflects a market waiting for the next catalyst rather than leaning into directional conviction.” 

The same situation can be seen in Ethereum, where 237,879 contracts are open, 107,282 calls, and 130,597 puts with a ratio of 1.22 and a national value of nearly $770 millions. Deribit analysts note that the positioning of ETH has changed to a more neutral distribution, but the call concentration at levels above 3,400 suggests that traders still have no problem pricing in potential volatility.

Macro Backdrop: Fed’s Actions and Liquidity Concerns Amid Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry

Although the broader market has remained cautious, analysts at Greeks.live believe that the recent 25-basis-point rate reduction and the resumption of the $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve provide liquidity support. They said it is too early to declare a QE reboot or the beginning of a new bull market, noting that the weakest liquidity in crypto historically occurs at year-end periods.

Over fifty percent of open interest is clustered at December 26 expiries, and implied volatility has been on a downward trend. This shows low expectations of price fluctuations in the short term. On the other hand, there is a systematic negative skewness in the options market, where the puts are more expensive than the calls. This indicates not only a stable spot environment, which has revived covered-call strategies, but also market weakness, which has encouraged the need to protect against downside. Although the probability of sudden sharp moves is low and the structural conditions are soft, Greeks.live analysts suggested that traders be careful of possible upside catalysts. 

Short-Term Risks vs. Long-Term Momentum for Bitcoin and Ethereum

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry presents short-term risks, particularly the ETF outflows and miner stress. However, both cryptocurrencies have a good long-term perspective. Deribit analysts think that the market conditions are likely to create confined movements unless a significant catalyst emerges.

“There’s definitely risks in the near term… We’ll need one of those structural things to change,” said Sean McNulty, Derivatives Trading Lead APAC at FalconX. Despite the rising concerns, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have a positive long-term momentum that puts the two in a position of future growth.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry: $4.5 Billion at Stake Today

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry at 8:00 UTC today is a major event with 4.5 billion worth of contracts expiring. As the market remains wary of the thin liquidity and macro uncertainties, traders are expecting the possibility of volatility. 

However, the expiry itself can not cause radical price movements unless a new catalyst comes up. The short-term volatility can be predicted, but the market will be more stable as we enter the new year. The market has a high long-term momentum, and stabilization of the markets after the expiry of the contract will provide new trading opportunities to the traders.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.