Bitcoin May Stumble in Q3 as Ethereum Gains Momentum, Say Analysts

Bitcoin could face a challenging third quarter as market attention gradually shifts toward Ethereum, according to several analysts.

Brian Quinlivan, an analyst at Santiment, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s price trajectory often runs counter to public sentiment. “There’s a noticeable buzz on social platforms anticipating Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high. Historically, when retail sentiment leans too optimistic, the market tends to pull back,” he explained.

Despite Bitcoin nearing its peak price multiple times recently, the lack of hesitation from investors might ironically signal that the market isn’t quite ready for another significant rally. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $109,679, approximately 2.1% below its all-time high of $111,970, which was recorded on May 22, per CoinMarketCap.

Quinlivan believes a few more “near-miss” moments could test investor patience. As short-term traders grow frustrated, their declining optimism might actually create the right conditions for a meaningful price breakout.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads 72 out of 100, indicating strong bullish sentiment, or “Greed.”

Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, added that Bitcoin may underperform in the upcoming quarter. “Q3 has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest,” he said, citing CoinGlass data that shows an average return of just 6.03% for Q3 since 2013. In contrast, Q4 typically delivers a strong rebound with average gains around 85.42%.

He also pointed to macroeconomic uncertainty as a contributing factor. Despite growing political pressure to lower interest rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy, keeping rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50%—a move that could temper Bitcoin’s appeal as a high-yield asset.

Meanwhile, Ethereum is starting to garner increased interest from the market. Quinlivan noted that ETH has been “playing catch-up” since April’s market rebound. After dropping to around $1,472 on April 9, ETH has climbed back to approximately $2,793, showing significant recovery even though it remains down 21.50% year-over-year.

“Bitcoin’s recent rally has led to profit-taking, which is now flowing into other large-cap assets like Ethereum,” Quinlivan said. He emphasized that Ethereum had seen peak bearish sentiment just a few months ago, suggesting that a shift in momentum might be underway.

Dr. Dawson also mentioned the impact of seasonal trends, noting that trading volumes typically fall during summer months as investors take time off. This seasonal dip could lead to sideways price action or potential corrections as market participants lock in profits from recent gains.