Brief Market Outlook

Bitcoin broke below $85K on November 21 2025. As we discussed earlier, we entered a bear market on October 10. We published this article the same day Bitcoin fell below $118K. It kept falling since then. Now it is trading below $85K and you should be concerned about it, if not panic.

Let’s understand the current market sentiment along with the technical aspects of Bitcoin. Let’s get straight to the pointers.

Things we are going to cover in this article:

1. Should you panic?
2. Market sentiment check
3. BTC ETF inflow vs outflow
4. Technical analysis of Bitcoin

Should you panic?

Yes, if you’re leveraged long here or trying to catch a bottom or keep buying the dips, you should panic. Bitcoin is down 35% from the top, and a bottom is nowhere to be seen. If you’re new to crypto, now’s the time to learn and take notes. What the market teaches you during a bear market can help you make thousands or even millions of dollars later. This isn’t a price level where we’d be looking to go long, as there’s no confirmation of a bottom forming.

Never catch a falling knife and never bet against the trend. It’s better to be late to the party than to show up at the wrong one. These are some of the wise words from our analyst and our guru Cheds.

Now, let’s get straight to market sentiment check.

What does market sentiment say?

A lot of CT traders were calling for bullish momentum and a rally, literally trying to catch every bottom only to discover a new bottom was forming. Bulls are constantly getting obliterated by bears as big players suck all the liquidity from Bitcoin and other alts, while shorters sit in deep profit. Don’t follow blindly. Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. The only two big accounts we know of who were publicly short are TraderXO and Drprofit.

Everyone other than them were bullish including us until $118K broke. We turned bearish after that level was lost.

BTC ETF inflow vs outflow

1. Monthly & Cumulative Outflows

Metric	Value
Total Bitcoin ETF Outflows (Nov 2025)	$3.79B
Previous Worst Month (Feb 2025)	$3.56B
Bitcoin Price Range (Current)	$88,000 – $92,000
Drawdown from Oct Peak ($126K)	-35%

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2. ETF-Specific Outflows

ETF	Outflows (Nov 2025)	Share of Total
BlackRock IBIT	$2.47B	≈63%
Fidelity FBTC	$1.09B	—

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3. Major Single-Day Flows

Date	Flow	Notes
Nov 7	+ $240M	Brief relief — broke 6-day outflow streak
Nov 14	–$870M	2nd-worst single day on record
Mid-November (few days later)	–$903M	Another severe outflow

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4. Combined BTC + ETH ETF Flows

Period	Flow
Oct 29 – Nov 5	–$2.9B

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5. Digital Asset Treasury Inflows (Institutional)

Month	Inflows
September 2025	$10.89B
November 2025	$505M
Decline	≈95% collapse

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6. Institutional Cost Basis

Category	Value
Average Spot Bitcoin ETF Buyer Cost Basis	$90,146
Status at Current Prices ($88K–92K)	Mostly near breakeven or underwater

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Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

1. Current Market Structure

Bitcoin continues to trade in a highly volatile environment, reflecting growing institutional uncertainty and weakening market liquidity. After losing the critical $118,600 support, BTC has fallen to $85K real fast. This creates a heavy supply zone, as many participants are selling on every bounce to exit at cost and even under water positions are forced to close.

BTC has already corrected 35% from the October peak of $126,000, indicating a clear transition from bullish momentum into a distribution and downtrend phase.

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2. Sell-Side Volume Confirmation

One of the strongest bearish signals right now is the rise in sell-side volume. While buying volume remains muted, selling activity has increased steadily, confirming that the market is being driven by forced exits, institutional derisking, and liquidity pressure. This aligns with the record ETF outflows observed throughout November.

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3. Death Cross on the Daily Chart

A major technical event has now formed: the death cross, where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. This is historically associated with extended corrective phases or deeper downtrends.

The implications are significant:

• Momentum is decisively bearish
• Trend reversal becomes harder without strong inflow support
• Selling pressure typically increases after such a signal

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4. Key Moving Averages & Critical Downside Targets

The 200-day moving average—a long-term trend indicator—is currently positioned around $55,000. If bearish momentum continues, Bitcoin could gravitate toward this level over the coming weeks or months.

Additionally, derivatives data highlights two crucial max pain levels:

• $75,000
• $55,000

These levels often act as magnets during periods of stress, especially when market makers push price toward zones where the highest number of options expire worthless.

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5. Momentum Indicators

Technical oscillators remain weak:

• RSI sits in the lower neutral band, showing no strong reversal signal
• MACD continues to expand bearishly, confirming downward trend strength

Until BTC convincingly reclaims major resistances at $104,000 and $118,600, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

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6. Conclusion

Record ETF outflows, rising sell-side volume, a confirmed daily death cross, and critical downside targets aligning near $75,000 and $55,000 all point toward a market still in correction mode. With institutional capital actively derisking and liquidity thinning out, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further downside volatility, unless strong inflows or structural supports emerge.