SPX Hits Record High on Christmas Eve. Is Crypto Next?

On December 24, 2025, the S&P 500 (SPX) reached a new intraday all‑time high of approximately 6,937.29 points, extending its strong performance into the holiday season amid optimism around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and resilient economic data. At the same time, major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin traded lower, highlighting both the increasing synchronization and structural differences between traditional and digital asset markets today.

Chart 1: Bitcoin vs US Equities Correlation

Bitcoin’s price hovered near the mid‑$80,000s with intraday trading around $87,329, showing modest weakness relative to its recent levels. This divergence between the SPX all‑time high and crypto performance frames a key question for investors: how strong is the SPX ATH correlation with crypto markets in late 2025, and what drives periods of both alignment and decoupling?

Rising but Imperfect Correlation: SPX and Crypto

In recent years, the correlation of the crypto market, and Bitcoin specifically, with the S&P 500 has changed. Considered as a non-correlated asset historically, the price behavior of Bitcoin has been noted to trend in the same direction as equities during general risk-on periods. Rolling correlation of data tracking indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is significant in 2025 with some correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7 in a 30-day timeframe, indicating that the two markets tend to respond to the same macroeconomic factors including the expectations of monetary policies and risk appetite.

Chart 2: SPX M5 chart, published on TradingView, December 24, 2025

This increasing dependence is not an indicator that the markets always move in the same direction. As a matter of fact, the existing divergence, stocks at a new ATH and the crypto prices lower, highlight major structural differences. The equities enjoy institutional inflows, earnings growth, and expansive diversification in the sectors. In the meantime, crypto markets are very much sensitive to the outflows of Bitcoin ETFs, regulatory mood, and liquidity status resulting in tighter swings and dislocations in the short term.

Why Crypto Can Decouple Despite Risk‑On Sentiment?

Even as the SPX reaches new highs, cryptocurrencies can diverge due to their unique market structure and participants. First, volatility in crypto is much higher than in large‑cap equities, meaning short‑term price moves can be disconnected from broader risk sentiment. Second, crypto‑specific drivers, such as ETF inflows, blockchain network usage statistics, and regulatory news, often have outsized effects that don’t materially impact stocks.

For instance, while the S&P 500’s climb was aided by sector rotation into technology and AI stocks, crypto may be experiencing profit‑taking after a strong run earlier in the year. Additionally, Bitcoin and other digital assets are still influenced by retail trading behavior and liquidity differences compared with institutional equity markets.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

The SPX ATH correlation with crypto markets in late 2025 is strong enough to be meaningful, but not deterministic. Traditional markets and digital assets are now more interconnected through macro liquidity and investor risk appetite, yet crypto’s inherent volatility and independent drivers mean alignment isn’t guaranteed on every trading day.

Investors are, therefore, advised to consider these markets as similar and different in that equities can still be supported by stable incomes and macro, whereas crypto can easily change its direction depending on the news related to the asset class. Understanding the correlation as well as the decoupling opportunity can be used in positioning the portfolio as we enter 2026.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.