Introduction

Bitcoin’s recent price action has left traders stuck in one question: Is the bottom already in, or is a deeper bear market correction toward $35,000 still possible? After months of volatility, failed breakouts, lower highs, and liquidity flushes, the market sits at a critical turning point—one that demands clarity, rationality, and a deeper look at both technical and macroeconomic signals.

But before we dive deeper, let’s address something important.

In our previous article, we discussed the $75,000 and $55,000 price zones as realistic downside target’s. during Bitcoin’s corrective structure. These levels did indeed play out as major psychological and structural regions where the market reacted, bounced, and redistributed.

However, after re-evaluating the macroeconomic landscape, liquidity cycles, and key Fibonacci retracement levels, our analysts have now revised the possibility of a catastrophic bear market scenario that could drag Bitcoin down toward the $35,000 region.

This isn’t a call for panic. It’s a call for preparedness.

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Why $35,000 Is Suddenly on the Table

Bitcoin’s fractal behavior and market structure over the years have often respected deeper Fibonacci retracements during prolonged correction phases. While the 0.618 golden ratio has historically acted as a strong support level, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement often marks the final flush before a real reversal begins.

The 0.786 Fib Sits Around $39,000

And markets rarely react exactly at the number.
They wick, overshoot, deviate, and hunt liquidity pools sitting slightly above or below these zones.

This makes the region between:

• $39,000 (Fibonacci 0.786)
• $35,000 (liquidity sweep + macro support)

a high-probability demand zone if Bitcoin enters a full-blown bear market continuation.

This possibility does not eliminate the bullish case—it simply balances the narrative with probabilities instead of hopium.

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Understanding the Current Market Structure

Bitcoin’s market structure is showing clear signs of stress:

1. Lower highs forming across higher timeframes
2. Distribution patterns visible above $100K zones
3. Volume skew favoring sellers on major breakdowns
4. ETF outflows pressuring spot demand
5. Macro headwinds aligning against high-beta risk assets

When you combine these factors, it becomes evident that the market is not in the kind of environment where V-shaped recoveries thrive.

But does that automatically mean $35K is guaranteed?

No.
Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic.

Which brings us to the real question…

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Is the Bottom Already In?

There are two schools of thought right now.

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Bullish Case: The Bottom Is In

Some analysts believe the recent liquidity wick was the cycle bottom for these reasons:

1. Long-term holders didn’t capitulate

Most LTH wallets still show strong conviction, historically seen near cycle bottoms.

2. Miner capitulation signals are easing

Often, miner pain precedes market recovery.

3. CME gaps below have been filled

Markets tend to reverse after filling their most obvious inefficiencies.

4. Spot ETF flows could resume

If liquidity stabilizes, flows can flip positive again.

5. The 4-year cycle timing supports a recovery

Historically, Bitcoin begins its upward structure a few quarters after the halving—and we’re entering that window.

This narrative suggests Bitcoin may begin slowly grinding upward from current levels instead of seeking the $35K liquidity pocket.

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Bearish Case: $35,000 Is Still Not Off the Table

The bearish thesis strengthens when you zoom out and look at the broader confluence.

1. Fibonacci 0.786 is untouched

Historically, deeper cycle corrections tend to test or sweep this level.

2. Liquidity gap between $42K–$36K

The chart shows a clean, untested pocket—markets don’t like leaving gaps.

3. Macro tightening & recession fears

In previous cycles, liquidity tightening aligned with deeper market corrections.

4. Lower high structures remain intact

Bitcoin has not broken its major downward trendline with authority.

5. Retail sentiment is overly optimistic

When people refuse to believe deeper downside is possible, markets often go there.

Combined together, these factors support the argument that the bear market may not be over yet.

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So What Should Traders Do?

Whether Bitcoin bottoms here or falls toward $35K, the principle remains unchanged:

Manage risk, prepare for both scenarios, and don’t trade on disbelief.

• Don’t marry a bias.
• Respect invalidation levels.
• Cut positions when proven wrong.
• Don’t try to catch exact bottoms—catch the structure.
• Keep enough liquidity to take advantage of extreme fear events.

Bitcoin has humbled traders for over a decade. The smartest ones survived by staying objective, not emotional.

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Final Thoughts

The big question—Is Bitcoin’s bottom in, or will the bear market extend down to $35,000?—doesn’t have a single correct answer today. What exists is probability, not certainty.

While our past analysis focused on the likelihood of Bitcoin interacting with the $75K and $55K regions, updated macro trends and technical confluences force us to acknowledge a harsher, but realistic, possibility: a deeper correction toward the $35K–$39K zone.

This isn’t a doomsday prediction.
It’s a mature, risk-aware assessment in an environment where liquidity, sentiment, and global macro trends are shifting rapidly.

Stay cautious. Stay rational. And above all—stay prepared for both outcomes.

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