Bitcoin holders are sitting on paper losses right now, and the numbers behind that are worth paying attention to. On-chain data puts roughly 9.31 million BTC in unrealized loss territory that is close to half of everything currently in circulation. The last time the market looked like this was 2022, and most people would rather forget how that year ended.
So the obvious question is whether BTC near its bottom is where we actually are, or whether the worst is still ahead.
What the Data Is Telling Us
CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn flagged this on X recently, sharing a chart for Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss metric. The reading hit 9.31 million BTC, the highest since the 2022 bear market. In percentage terms, that accounts for about 46-50% of the total circulating supply, depending on the snapshot.
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart makes it even more specific. The majority of underwater Bitcoin holders bought between $80,000 and $95,000, with another dense cluster sitting between $105,000 and $120,000. Those two ranges represent a massive wall of cost-basis pressure that the market now has to work through.
Maartunn’s summary is blunt: “A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit.” That overhead supply, he argues, needs to be absorbed by stronger, more conviction-driven buyers before any durable floor can form.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026
Why This Pattern Keeps Repeating Itself
Every major Bitcoin cycle has gone through something like this. Big rallies pull in new buyers near the top. Prices reverse. Those late buyers are suddenly underwater, and instead of adding more, they wait. The moment prices recover enough to let them exit near their entry point, they sell. That selling then slows the recovery.
It is a feedback loop that frustrates both bulls and bears. It is exactly why Bitcoin holders in the current market are facing a drawn-out process rather than a quick bounce. Long-term Bitcoin holders know this cycle well – the discomfort is almost a rite of passage at this point.
The 2022 bear market offers the most recent comparison. Supply in loss climbed even higher than today’s levels before Bitcoin eventually found its floor around $15,500. What followed was months of dull, sideways price action – the kind that tests patience far more than sharp drops do.
Is BTC Near Its Bottom? A Few Signals Worth Watching
Nobody can say for certain whether the floor is in, but there are a few concrete indicators worth monitoring rather than just watching the price tick.
Realized losses are rising. Data from January 2026 shows roughly 69,000 BTC in net realized losses recorded since late December 2025, Bitcoin’s first sustained net-loss phase since October 2023. Historically, that level of capitulation tends to show up in the weeks before a cycle floor, not after.
Exchange withdrawals are another tell. A notable spike in Binance withdrawal addresses appeared in late 2025, suggesting some buyers are moving coins into cold storage rather than keeping them on the exchange. That behavior tends to come from longer-term Bitcoin holders, not from panicked sellers heading for the exit.
Bernstein Research reaffirmed a $200,000 year-end price target in early 2026, calling the current pullback ordinary within a broader bull cycle. That is not a guarantee of anything, but institutional desks maintaining high price targets during a downturn does say something about where longer-term demand sits.
Also Read: Top 7 Crypto Coins to Buy During the 2026 Bear Market
Bottom Line
No honest analyst can pinpoint exactly when or where the floor lands. What the data does show is that Bitcoin holders are going through the kind of grinding, uncomfortable phase that has historically preceded recovery. The supply in loss metric near 50% looks scary. Historically, it has also looked like this right before conditions shift.
If BTC near its bottom is a question you’re losing sleep over, it may help to zoom out. The setup today is not easy, but it is not unfamiliar either.
Why are so many Bitcoin holders underwater right now?
BTC dropped significantly from its recent all-time high, leaving anyone who bought during that peak run holding at a loss. On-chain data puts the underwater supply at approximately 9.31 million BTC.
Has the market been at 50% supply in loss before?
Yes. During the 2022 bear market, the supply-in-loss reading climbed even higher before Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500. The current reading is elevated but not unprecedented.
What is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution?
It is a CryptoQuant tool that maps where current BTC holders actually bought. It helps identify which price levels are likely to act as resistance on the way back up, because that is where people are waiting to exit near breakeven.
Should I buy Bitcoin when the supply in loss is high?
That is a personal financial decision, and this article does not offer financial advice. On-chain metrics are useful context, but they are not predictive tools. Speak with a qualified financial advisor before acting on any of this.
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Disclaimer:
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