Current Market Snapshot
Currently Bitcoin is trading inside a big range of $90K to $100K. There were multiple rejections at the $93.3K level previously and this time was no exception. However tapping it some more times may weaken the resistance and eventually break above it. However, bulls are not so back until we get a clear break above $100K and holds.
We told our followers that a short term bullish momentum can occur when the week low was swept.
Let’s deep dive into the other aspects as well.
The Move
Bitcoin’s latest move from $85,000 to $94,000 injected some long-lost excitement back into the market. After weeks of sluggish sideways movement and fading volume, this sudden upside burst felt like the market had just taken a deep breath again. Traders on X started calling it the “final leg,” sentiment briefly flipped bullish, and a few analysts resurfaced their six-figure predictions.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Even with this spike, Bitcoin still faces massive structural resistance — and hitting $100K before the end of 2025 remains extremely hard.
And even if it somehow does, the probability of a strong rejection is higher than sustaining above it.
Let’s break this down realistically and without moon-boy fantasies.
1. The Recent Pump Was Good — But Not Convincing
Yes, Bitcoin jumped from $85K to $94K, but the rally wasn’t as strong as it looked at first glance.
a) Volume Returned, But Not Enough
There was a clear uptick in volume during the move. However:
- It wasn’t close to the volume levels we saw when BTC broke $60K, $70K, or $80K.
- It looked more like short squeezes, not genuine spot-driven demand.
- ETF inflows didn’t match the excitement online.
In short:
The rally happened because bears loosened their grip, not because bulls seized control.
b) Liquidity Above $90K Was Thin
Bitcoin sliced through $90K faster than expected because the liquidity layer was shallow.
That also means the reversal can be equally violent if momentum dies.
2. The $100K Level Is Not Just Resistance — It’s a Fortress
People underestimate what $100,000 represents for Bitcoin.
It’s not just a psychological number.
It’s not just a round figure.
It’s not even just a technical ceiling.
It’s a multi-layered wall.
a) Sell Orders Stack Between $98,000–$102,000
On most order books, there’s an enormous cluster of sell pressure in this zone from:
- Long-term holders waiting to take profit
- Treasury-managed wallets
- Miners securing operational revenue
- Bots programmed to sell near major psychological levels
This zone is a graveyard for breakout attempts.
b) ETFs Will Likely See Heavy Profit-Taking
Once $100K flashes on the screen, institutions will be under pressure from:
- Clients wanting withdrawals
- Portfolio balancing mandates
- Risk desks reducing exposure
Meaning:
ETFs may trigger outflows precisely at $100K, not inflows.
c) Derivatives Markets Are Already Pricing a Rejection
Options data shows very high open interest around:
- $95K calls (short-term)
- $100K calls (heavily sold)
- $90K puts (hedge demand increasing)
Market makers thrive on trapping overleveraged traders — $100K is the perfect trap.
3. Market Structure Still Favors Sideways-to-Down Movement
Even after the surge, Bitcoin’s broader structure remains weak.
a) Lower Highs Dominate Larger Timeframes
Zoom out to the weekly chart:
- BTC failed to sustain above $98K in previous attempts.
- Each push higher has been met with faster and deeper corrections.
- The curve of momentum is flattening.
This is not what a breakout structure looks like.
b) Volume Deterioration Across the Board
Spot volume continues to decline year-over-year since the peak.
Strong bull markets require:
- Expanding volume
- Expanding retail participation
- Expanding inflows
We currently have none of these.
c) Retail Is Not Back Yet
Google Trends, exchange signups, and meme-coin engagement tell the story:
Retail is watching, not participating.
And without retail, Bitcoin rarely hits explosive new highs.
4. Macro Conditions Are Not Favorable Enough
2025 was expected to be a massive liquidity cycle — but the reality is more mixed.
a) Central Banks Are Still Cautious
Rate cuts are slower than expected. Liquidity is not flowing as freely as projected.
b) Geopolitical Tension Makes Big Money Defensive
Uncertainty pushes funds into:
- Cash
- Gold
- Bonds
Not volatile assets like Bitcoin.
c) Dollar Strength Hasn’t Broken Yet
As long as DXY stays above critical levels, Bitcoin struggles to maintain uptrends.
5. Even If Bitcoin Touches $100K, Rejection Is the Most Probable Outcome
Let’s imagine Bitcoin does somehow crawl up to $100K.
What happens next?
a) Profit-Taking From Every Corner
From retail to institutions to miners — everyone has a psychological sell trigger at $100K.
This would create instant downward pressure.
b) Derivatives Unwind Could Trigger Cascades
As soon as $100K touches:
- Options hedging
- Futures liquidations
- Stop-loss triggers
…could create a rapid wick up and slap back down.
c) Market Makers Love To Trap Breakouts
A fake breakout to $100K followed by a violent rejection to $80K–$85K would:
- Liquidate late longs
- Flush leverage
- Reset the market for months
This pattern has played out in every cycle.
Why would 2025 be different?
Conclusion: $100K Is More Fantasy Than Forecast — For Now
Bitcoin’s move from $85K to $94K was refreshing.
It brought back a heartbeat to a market that was starting to look clinically flat.
But a heartbeat isn’t a bull run.
Here’s the blunt verdict:
- Bitcoin can push higher, but the momentum isn’t convincing.
- $100K sits behind a monstrous wall of sell pressure.
- Even if Bitcoin hits $100K, the odds of a hard rejection are extremely high.
- The macro + technical setup leans more bearish than bullish.
Could Bitcoin still surprise everyone?
It always can.
But based on the current data, liquidity, and market psychology, $100K before the end of 2025 remains highly unlikely— and if it does print, it may last only as a quick wick before the market slams back down.
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only. Cryptocurrency investing and trading carries significant risk; consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
Read about our Bitcoin Death Cross blog here.
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