Bitcoin’s Potential Rally Tied to U.S. Economic Strength and Crypto Bill Advancement: Coinbase Research Forecasts

According to a report from Coinbase Research, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a rally driven by the U.S. economy’s improving performance and legislative progress concerning cryptocurrencies. The outlook for altcoins, however, remains less certain.

A recent publication by Coinbase Research suggests that a more optimistic macroeconomic environment, increasing corporate interest in digital assets, and enhanced regulatory clarity are expected to foster a constructive market outlook for cryptocurrencies in the latter half of 2025.

Following a challenging first quarter marked by a brief contraction in U.S. GDP and trade disruptions, recent data now points to stronger economic growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker notably surged to 3.8% quarter-over-quarter as of early June, indicating a significant upward revision from earlier in the year. This shift, coupled with anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate reductions and a less aggressive trade stance, has alleviated recession concerns and bolstered investor confidence.

The report also indicates that Bitcoin’s allure could be further amplified by declining dollar dominance and its utility as an inflation hedge, even if long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. Conversely, altcoins might struggle to keep pace unless they benefit from distinct drivers, such as new ETF approvals or significant protocol advancements.

Concurrently, publicly traded companies are increasingly integrating cryptocurrencies into their financial holdings, a trend facilitated by a 2024 accounting rule adjustment allowing digital assets to be “marked-to-market.” While this expands demand for crypto, it also introduces novel systemic risks. Companies that finance crypto acquisitions using convertible debt, for instance, could face pressure to sell their holdings if refinancing options become scarce or asset prices sharply decline.

Regulatory Landscape Evolution

The report highlights that upcoming regulatory developments are also anticipated to reshape the digital asset market.

The U.S. Senate recently passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill that is now progressing to the House of Representatives. Additionally, the CLARITY Act, a broader market structure bill, aims to delineate the supervisory roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Its passage could provide much-needed clarity for both issuers and investors.

Separately, the SEC is actively reviewing over 80 applications for various crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which include proposals for multi-asset funds and those involving staking and altcoins. Some decisions on these applications could be issued as early as July, with the remaining likely finalized by October.

In summary, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to benefit from both macroeconomic improvements and structural tailwinds in the second half of the year. The trajectory for altcoins, however, will largely depend on their ability to navigate a more intricate and still-evolving regulatory framework and liquidity conditions.