XRP Price Forecast: Is a Bearish June on the Horizon for Ripple?

XRP Market Sentiment: Volatile Start to June

XRP, the cryptocurrency tied to Ripple, has entered June trading with uncertainty, swinging between modest gains and losses. As of June 2, XRP had slipped 0.30% to hover around $2.15, still showing over 35% growth from its April 7 low of $1.61.

However, market optimism has been dampened by broader macroeconomic concerns. Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly after fresh tariff threats from the U.S., have cast a shadow over the global risk sentiment, influencing the crypto markets.

Technical Setup: Breakdown from Descending Triangle Signals Caution

A bearish pattern has emerged on XRP’s daily chart. The token recently fell below the lower boundary of a descending triangle—a structure that often suggests weakening buying pressure and a potential shift in trend.

The failure to sustain a breakout above the triangle’s upper resistance zone trapped bullish traders, giving way to a stronger bearish pull. The break beneath the $2.07 support now opens up a potential move downward toward $1.25, a level aligned with previous consolidation zones.

Other technical signals, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting near 40, and declining volume, reinforce the idea that selling pressure may intensify in the short term.

On-Chain Insight: Denial Phase Suggests Correction Could Deepen

According to the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) model, long-term XRP holders have entered the “Denial” phase. This sentiment zone typically appears near local market tops, where investors struggle to accept that bullish momentum is fading.

Historical data shows that XRP often experiences sharp declines when entering this psychological phase. Notable corrections followed similar patterns in early 2021 and mid-2022, where initial resistance to selling turned into accelerated losses once profits started to erode.

This time, the situation appears particularly fragile. The NUPL indicator’s shift into the green zone, alongside price stagnation just below $3, suggests that XRP may be replicating past peaks where complacency preceded a broader pullback.

Realized Price Metric: XRP Could Revert to $1.06 Support

Another key metric to watch is XRP’s realized price—a measure of the average acquisition cost for tokens actively held in the market. This value provides insight into what many consider a “fair market” baseline.

Currently, XRP’s realized price stands around $1.06, more than 50% below the current spot price. Historically, XRP has shown a pattern of correcting back to this level after strong rallies, especially when buying momentum fades.

A return to this cost basis could indicate a market reset, flushing out excess speculation and bringing the token back in line with fundamental support levels.

Conclusion: A Cautious Outlook for XRP in June

While XRP has posted impressive gains since April, its recent technical breakdown and on-chain sentiment signal potential headwinds in June. The combination of bearish chart patterns, deteriorating investor psychology, and a significant gap between current price and realized value suggests caution is warranted.

Unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge, XRP may continue to retrace and test lower support levels—possibly heading toward the $1.25–$1.06 zone as the month progresses.