ETH is trading around $3,061 this morning after bouncing back from last week’s dip below $2,850. The Ethereum Fusaka launch happens tonight at 21:49 UTC, marking the network’s second major upgrade in 2025.
Back in May, the Pectra fork went live, and ETH jumped about 29% in the following days. Now everyone’s asking if Fusaka will deliver similar gains. The upgrade brings PeerDAS technology and bigger block capacity, changes that could reshape Layer 2 networks. But will that translate to price action?
What’s Coming with Today’s Upgrade
The Ethereum Fusaka Launch combines two updates. “Fulu” handles the consensus layer while “Osaka” covers the execution layer. Together, they’re bringing roughly 12-13 improvements to the network.
PeerDAS is the star of the show. Right now, validators have to download complete blob data to verify it’s available. That creates bottlenecks when traffic spikes. With PeerDAS, nodes only need to sample about 12.5% of the data instead of grabbing everything.
Think of it like checking a few random pages in a book instead of reading the whole thing cover to cover. If enough validators sample different random portions and they all check out, the network knows the full data exists. This cuts bandwidth needs by roughly 85%.
Block gas limits are getting bumped too. The target’s going from 36 million to 60 million gas units per block. That’s a 67% increase in how much computation fits into each 12-second window. More gas means more transactions can squeeze through on the mainnet.
There’s also a safety cap on individual transactions at 16.8 million gas. Stops anyone from jamming up an entire block with one massive operation.
ETH Price Action Leading Into Launch
Looking at the charts, ETH opened around $2,825 and climbed up to $3,061. That’s roughly 8% in the last day or so. Volume picked up during yesterday’s rally with solid buying pressure behind those green candles.
The bigger picture shows ETH finding support in the $2,750-$2,800 range after dropping below $2,850 on December 1st. Some analysts were worried we’d see a slide all the way to $2,500, but buyers stepped in and prevented that.
Getting back over $3,000 matters. That level acted as resistance before, and now it’s flipped to support. Traders watch for these flips because they often signal shifts in momentum.
Also Read: Layer 1 vs. Layer 2: What’s the Difference and Why It Matters
Will This Upgrade Actually Move the Price?
Opinions are all over the map. One crypto analyst made a bold call on Twitter, saying he expects ETH to rally over 100% after Fusaka. He’s betting Q1 2026 will be when Ethereum really takes off.
His reasoning centers on Layer 2 improvements. Lower data costs should let rollups like Arbitrum and Base cut their fees, which might bring in more users. More L2 activity theoretically drives value back to Ethereum’s main network.
But plenty of folks aren’t convinced we’ll see fireworks right away. When Pectra pumped the price back in May, the whole crypto market was climbing. Bitcoin was pushing toward new highs, and risk appetite was strong across the board. Fusaka’s launching into a different setup now.
Technical analysts see potential for a 14-21% move if ETH breaks through $3,200 resistance. That would put us somewhere between $3,400 and $3,500 over the next couple of weeks. Getting past $3,200 cleanly would be a good confirmation for bulls.
Bears argue that much of the upgrade’s impact is already priced in. ETH rallied from $2,750 to $3,061 heading into today. A classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation might be playing out.
Layer 2 Networks Stand to Benefit Most
The real winners here are probably Layer 2 rollups. These networks bundle up thousands of transactions and post compressed data back to Ethereum in things called blobs. With PeerDAS activated, the network can handle way more blob data without overwhelming validators.
Industry estimates suggest transaction fees on Layer 2s could drop 40-60% once everything’s fully rolled out. That’s meaningful savings that either get passed to users or let the networks scale up their operations.
Ethereum is planning to increase blob capacity in stages. Two more adjustments are coming on December 9th and January 7th. The blob count per block will gradually rise from 6/9 up to eventually 14/21. More blobs equals more space for L2 transaction data.
With these changes, some analysts think the L2 ecosystem could theoretically handle over 100,000 transactions per second. For context, Visa processes around 65,000 TPS on average.
History Gives Mixed Signals
Pectra offers one data point. ETH rallied 29% within days of that fork activating. But you can’t just draw a straight line from upgrade to price pump. The broader market was strong during that same period.
Look at the Dencun upgrade from March 2024, and things get messier. That update brought blobs to Ethereum for the first time, slashing L2 fees by 90-95%. Huge technical achievement. But the price basically moved sideways for weeks before eventually grinding higher.
What this tells you is that upgrades probably matter more over months than hours. Better infrastructure attracts developers. Developers build apps. Apps bring users. Users generate activity. That whole cycle takes time to spin up.
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Key Price Levels Traders Are Watching
Support sits at $3,000 and $2,800 based on recent action. If we drop under $3,000, there’s likely buying interest around $2,800, where this recent bounce started. Lose that, and you’re looking at $2,750 next, then $2,500 below that.
Going up, $3,200 is what needs to break. Push through there, and the next target sits around $3,500. Get above that, and we’re back near the cycle high around $4,000.
The way ETH has been consolidating between $2,800 and $3,200 might just be normal market behavior after big moves. Prices need time to settle and find equilibrium before making the next leg in either direction.
Passkey Feature Flying Under the Radar
One piece of Fusaka that nobody’s really talking about is passkey authentication. The upgrade adds support for secp256r1 curve cryptography, which lets people sign transactions using Apple Secure Enclave or Android Keystore.
Why does this matter? Institutions hate dealing with seed phrases. Too much liability, too many security headaches. Passkeys remove that friction by letting users authenticate through their phone’s biometric security instead.
This could quietly speed up institutional adoption. Big financial players have been circling Ethereum but struggling with custody solutions. Native passkey support makes enterprise-grade security way simpler to implement.
Network Testing Went Smoothly
Developers didn’t rush this upgrade out the door. Fusaka was already activated successfully on three test networks back in October. Holesky went first on October 1st, then Sepolia on October 14th, and Hoodi wrapped up testing on October 28th.
The Ethereum Foundation ran a bug bounty program too, putting up to $2 million on the table for anyone who found critical vulnerabilities. That program finished recently without any showstopper issues emerging.
Node operators have had several weeks to update their software. Client releases supporting Fusaka dropped back in early November, giving everyone plenty of runway to prepare. The smooth testnet activations suggest the mainnet should go fine today.
What Comes After Fusaka?
Ethereum’s roadmap doesn’t stop here. The next big upgrade is tentatively called Glamsterdam, scheduled for sometime in 2026. Details are still vague, but expect more scaling and efficiency improvements.
The long-term vision is to make Ethereum the base layer for global computation. Today’s Fusaka upgrade moves that forward by proving the network can scale data availability without sacrificing decentralization.
People holding for the long haul probably care more about this execution than what happens to the price this week. If Ethereum cements its position as the dominant smart contract platform, the ETH price should eventually track fundamentals upward.
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Realistic Expectations for Price
Let’s be honest about probabilities. A 100% pump from $3,061 would put us at $6,000. That seems aggressive for the immediate aftermath of an upgrade. More realistic near-term targets sit in the $3,400-$3,500 range if momentum builds.
Some forecasts see ETH potentially reaching $3,900-$4,000 by late December if institutional interest continues and the upgrade goes smoothly. Others think we’ll consolidate in the $3,000-$3,500 range for a while before making any major moves.
Bulls argue the benefits show up in price over time, not instantly. Cheaper L2 transactions might spark a wave of new applications through Q1 2026, and that would eventually pull the ETH price higher. It’s a longer-term thesis.
Bears say the technicals look shaky despite today’s bounce. ETH is down 43% from the August all-time high and is sitting at a critical support zone. If $2,800 breaks, the next real support doesn’t show up until $2,500 or potentially lower.
When exactly does the Ethereum Fusaka Launch happen?
The upgrade activates at slot 13,164,544 on the mainnet, which hits at exactly 21:49 UTC on December 3rd, 2025. That’s 4:49 PM Eastern Time or 1:49 PM Pacific.
What’s PeerDAS and why should regular users care?
PeerDAS lets validator nodes verify data by sampling small chunks instead of downloading everything. This drops storage and bandwidth needs by about 85%. For regular users, it means Layer 2 networks can scale up and potentially offer cheaper transactions over time.
Is my ETH safe during the upgrade?
Yeah, network upgrades happen automatically at predetermined block numbers. You don’t need to do anything with your holdings. The blockchain just keeps running with new rules after activation.
How will this affect gas fees on Ethereum mainnet?
The block gas limit increase to 60 million might help capacity a bit on the mainnet. But most of the fee improvements benefit Layer 2 rollups like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism. Those networks could see costs drop 40-60% over the coming months as the full changes roll out.
Conclusion
ETH sitting above $3,000 as the Ethereum Fusaka launch goes live tonight creates an interesting setup. The upgrade delivers real technical improvements, particularly for Layer 2 scaling through PeerDAS. Whether that translates to immediate price gains is anyone’s guess.
History’s mixed on Ethereum upgrades. Pectra sparked a rally, but that coincided with broader market strength. Dencun was a massive technical win, but didn’t move the price much right away. The benefits from infrastructure improvements tend to show up over months rather than days.
For traders, $3,200 is the level to watch over the next week. Break above that convincingly, and bulls probably have room to push toward $3,500 or higher. Can’t hold $3,000, and we’re likely heading back down to test $2,800.
Either way, Ethereum keeps shipping major upgrades on schedule. That consistent execution matters more than short-term volatility when you’re thinking about the long game.
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