Arthur Hayes isn’t buying Bitcoin right now. Not at $70K, not even close. The BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Fund CIO sat down with Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast and didn’t sugarcoat anything. He sees a Bitcoin crash coming before any real recovery takes shape, and he’s keeping his money away from it until conditions change.
Why Hayes Is Warning of a Bitcoin Crash Right Now
Hayes put the US-Iran conflict front and center. The longer it runs, he said, the bigger the risk of a broad market unwind. He used the phrase “big cascading of liquidations” to describe what he thinks could happen if things heat up further.
At the time of the interview, BTC was sitting at around $70,000. Hayes wasn’t impressed by that number. He sees it as a trap for anyone buying in, hoping for a quick move higher. His Bitcoin crash call isn’t about the market dying. It’s about a painful shakeout first, one that takes prices below $60,000 before the real bull leg begins.
Worth remembering: Bitcoin already tested $60,000 on February 6, 2026. It bounced, but that level is now very much in play again.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026
The Fed Connection: Why Rate Policy Matters Here
Before Hayes puts a dollar back into Bitcoin, he needs one thing from the Fed: a real, credible signal that rate cuts are coming. Not hints. Not meeting minutes with a dovish word buried in paragraph four. An actual shift.
Right now he’s parked in cash and gold. His view is that a war in the Middle East doesn’t automatically send Bitcoin higher. In fact, it can do the opposite. Conflict pushes oil prices up, oil prices push inflation up, and inflation keeps the Fed’s hands tied. That’s bad for risk assets across the board.
He put it plainly: “War is not good for Bitcoin. Money printing is good for Bitcoin.” Until central banks start loosening the tap again, Hayes thinks the setup just isn’t there.
Order Book Data Supports the Caution
It’s not just Hayes talking. On-chain data backs his Bitcoin crash concerns. Sell-side liquidity above current prices recently hit a two-month high. According to crypto trader Ardi, there’s roughly $1.57 billion in sell orders stacked above spot, compared to just $1.125 billion in buy orders below. That’s nearly 40% more selling pressure than buying pressure within a 5% band.
Separately, Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the biggest supply cluster on the network sits between $86,000 and $99,000. These are coins bought between November 2025 and February 2026, now sitting at significant unrealized losses. That overhead supply matters if Bitcoin tries to recover.
Also Read: How Bitcoin’s Scarcity Could Push It’s Price to $1.5 Million?
Hayes Adds AI Job Losses as a Second Bitcoin Crash Risk
Geopolitics isn’t Hayes’ only concern. He also flagged rapid AI adoption as a potential credit shock. His argument: AI could displace large numbers of high-income knowledge workers faster than policymakers expect. The Fed currently views AI as a productivity tool, not a credit risk. Hayes thinks that’s a mistake.
If that job displacement materializes and the Fed doesn’t respond quickly, the downstream effect on consumer credit and spending could hit markets hard. That’s another scenario where a Bitcoin crash below key support levels becomes possible.
Long-Term? Hayes Still Sees Bitcoin at $500K to $750K
None of this short-term caution means Hayes has gone bearish on Bitcoin. Far from it. He’s thrown out numbers between $500,000 and $750,000 for where BTC ends up by late 2026. Even his cautious scenario has Bitcoin finishing the year at $250,000.
The reasoning is straightforward. Wars cost money. Economic crises cost money. Governments dealing with both eventually print money. When they do, capital flows into hard assets, and Bitcoin sits at the top of that list for a growing number of institutional players.
He’s booked as a speaker at Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas (April 27-29, The Venetian) where he’ll dig deeper into that macro thesis. Whatever you think of his short-term call, the long-term bet is still firmly on.
The short-term pain, in his view, is how the next big move gets loaded. He just won’t touch it until the Fed gives him what he needs to see.
Also Read: Bitcoin is Bottom But Is The Bottom In?
What to Watch Before the Next Bitcoin Move
Hayes is calling this a no-trade zone. That’s not pessimism. That’s discipline. Keep an eye on three things: any shift in Fed tone around rate cuts, how the US-Iran situation develops, and whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000 under pressure.
If $60K breaks and holds below, the liquidation cascade Hayes flagged becomes a real possibility. If the Fed pivots and signals easing, the whole picture changes fast. Right now the market is stuck waiting for one of those two things to happen first.
Is Arthur Hayes actually predicting a Bitcoin crash to $60K?
He’s not putting a guarantee on it. What he’s saying is that the conditions are there for a drop below $60,000 if geopolitical and monetary headwinds continue. He sees it as a serious risk, not a certainty.
When will Hayes start buying Bitcoin again?
He’s watching the Federal Reserve. Once he sees a genuine pivot toward looser monetary policy, he plans to move back in. Until then, gold and cash are where he’s comfortable sitting.
What’s Hayes’ long-term Bitcoin target?
He’s projected anywhere from $250,000 on the low end to $750,000 on the high end for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. His upside case hinges on central banks globally expanding the money supply in response to war spending and economic stress.
Has Hayes been right about Bitcoin before?
He’s honest about his short-term record. He’s admitted roughly 25% accuracy on near-term price calls in his own writing. His macro framework on liquidity cycles has generally pointed in the right direction, even when the timing was off by months.
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