A Contextual Brief
Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading in tight ranges as more than $2.2 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire today on Deribit, anchoring prices near key max pain levels. With dealer hedging suppressing volatility into expiry, traders are positioning for a potential post-settlement move, just as major macro catalysts come into play.
The market faces a rare convergence of options expiry mechanics, US labor market data, and a high-stakes Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs, all unfolding within the same trading session.
Other Articles you may like:
Is Polygon (Matic) Set to Expand Beyond Ethereum?
Strategy Acquires 1,287 BTC: Is A Massive Dump Coming?
US Becomes Biggest BTC Seller as Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $825M
$2.2 Billion in BTC and ETH Options Expire at 8:00 UTC
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,985, hovering almost exactly at its $90,000 max pain level. Ethereum, meanwhile, is holding near $3,113, slightly above its $3,100 max pain.
In total:
- Bitcoin options: ~$1.89 billion
- Ethereum options: ~$396 million
This setup has placed the market in a classic pre-expiry equilibrium, where price action remains constrained as market makers hedge exposure on both sides.
Bitcoin Options Show Near-Perfect Balance
Bitcoin’s options positioning is notably symmetrical:
- Call open interest: 10,105 contracts
- Put open interest: 10,633 contracts
- Put-to-call ratio: 1.05
This balance incentivizes dealers to actively hedge delta exposure, effectively pinning BTC spot price and muting volatility heading into expiry. As a result, sharp directional moves are less likely until the options settle.
Ethereum Options Hint at Greater Upside Sensitivity
Ethereum’s options structure appears more skewed toward the upside:
- Calls: 67,872 contracts
- Puts: 59,297 contracts
- Put-to-call ratio: 0.87
This positioning suggests stronger bullish exposure, particularly above the $3,000 region. Analysts note that a sustained hold above max pain could force dealers to become more reactive to upside moves once expiry-related hedging pressure fades.
Several market watchers highlight that volatility typically compresses into expiry and expands afterward, a pattern that ETH may be particularly sensitive to given its call-heavy structure.
Volatility Compressed for Now, But Not for Long
Across the broader crypto market, traders are scaling back directional exposure and reducing leverage, waiting for options settlement to pass. This defensive positioning reflects an expectation that true price discovery resumes after expiry, once dealer hedging no longer dominates short-term price action.
However, options dynamics are only one component of today’s risk landscape.
US Jobs Data and Dollar Strength Add Macro Headwinds
Macro pressure is building ahead of the US December nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, which remains the most important near-term macro catalyst.
Economist expectations include:
- 73,000 jobs added, up from the previous 64,000
- Unemployment rate: 4.5%, slightly below the prior 4.6%
Markets are particularly focused on average hourly earnings, as persistent wage growth would complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook. Sticky wages could push bond yields higher and weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The US dollar has already strengthened, with the DXY index up roughly 0.5% over the past week, pressuring non-yielding assets such as gold and crypto.
Conversely, softer job gains combined with easing wage growth could revive expectations for policy easing, opening the door to a late-week risk-on move.
Trump Tariff Ruling Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty
Adding to today’s volatility risk, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed under Trump-era emergency powers, with a decision anticipated later today.
Prediction markets currently lean toward a ruling that limits tariff authority, a development that could introduce short-term trade and growth uncertainty. Crypto markets have shown sensitivity to tariff headlines in the past, with previous announcements triggering sharp but temporary drawdowns before stabilizing.
What Traders Are Watching Next
With prices pinned by options mechanics and major macro signals still unresolved, most traders view current market behavior as cautious rather than outright bearish.
The broader takeaway:
- Short term: Volatility suppressed into expiry
- Post-expiry: Increased price movement likely
- Direction: Driven by jobs data, dollar reaction, and the Supreme Court ruling
Once dealer hedging fades, the combined impact of labor market data and policy clarity is expected to determine the next meaningful move for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For now, the market remains calm—but history suggests that calm may not last long.
Disclaimer: Always conduct your own due diligence. While we rely on third-party data sources, information may contain discrepancies or limitations. Cryptocurrency trading and investments involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Get the news in a Jist. Follow Cryptojist on X and Telegram for real-time updates!
Bitcoin 
Tether 
BNB 