Every time there is a headline of Bitcoin dumping, the internet lights up with theories. This week, all fingers pointed at Jane Street. Last week, it was Wintermute. Before that, Binance.
But what if the real story is far less dramatic?
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stepped in to clear the air and his explanation might surprise you.
The Jane Street Theory That Went Viral
A pattern started circulating on Crypto Twitter. Users claimed BTC drops sharply around 10 AM EST every day and allegedly tied it to Jane Street, a major market maker. Screenshots spread fast. People ran with the narrative.
Hougan pushed back hard on this. He took to X and wrote: “The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else.”
His point? The pattern of blaming someone new every week says more about investor anxiety than it does about any actual manipulation.
So Why Is Bitcoin Dumping Then?
According to Hougan, the answer is boring in the best possible way. Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling. That’s it.
These are not panic sellers. These are people who held through multiple market cycles and are now rotating out. They’re closing leveraged positions, offloading spot BTC, and writing covered calls. This kind of structured exit creates sustained downward pressure without any one villain.
Hougan points to three key triggers behind this exit behavior.
The four-year cycle
Old-school Bitcoin holders have seen this movie before. The halving happened in April 2024, and historically, the market runs hot for a while then cools off hard. A lot of these guys saw the top coming and started trimming before the crowd caught on.
Also Read: Bitcoin Halving- What It Is and Why It Matters
Quantum computing fears
This one surprised a lot of people. Concerns about quantum computers potentially cracking Bitcoin’s cryptographic security have quietly influenced institutional behavior. Kevin O’Leary, investor and Shark Tank star, confirmed that some institutional players are capping BTC exposure at around 3% until the industry demonstrates a credible quantum solution. Jefferies’ equity strategist Christopher Wood went further and removed a full 10% Bitcoin allocation from a model portfolio over the same concern, according to BeInCrypto’s earlier reporting.
Also Read: How To Make Your Crypto Wallet Quantum-Resistant?
Capital rotation into AI
Money has been pouring into AI startups at a pace that is hard to ignore. Some crypto investors, especially the macro-focused ones, have quietly shifted allocations. It is not that they hate Bitcoin. They just see faster returns elsewhere right now.
Also Read: Are Investors Leaving Crypto for AI in 2026?Â
Bitcoin Dumping Now, But Is a Bottom Near?
Hougan thinks the worst of the selling is likely behind us. He called this a “classic crypto winter” and said a spring will follow, which is about as optimistic as you can get while markets are still bleeding.
He first flagged this winter, starting back in January 2025. Running the numbers on past cycles, that puts us close to the other side of the tunnel right about now.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo is a bit more cautious though. He sees the sell-off running out of steam on-chain but warns that thin liquidity in spot and futures markets could keep a lid on any recovery. His read puts real bearish pressure sticking around into late 2026, with bulls only getting proper traction in early-to-mid 2027.
CryptoQuant ran the numbers against past cycle structures. Depending on which cycle this one rhymes with, a broader bottom window lands somewhere between June and October 2026.
Why Should You Care?
Bitcoin dumping is painful to watch, especially if you bought higher. But understanding why it is happening beats panicking over who to blame. Structured selling from long-term holders is actually one of the less scary ways a market corrects. No exchange hack, no regulatory bomb, no black swan. Just people taking profits and moving on.
The Jane Street narrative made for a great headline. But markets do not move because of one firm doing something shady at 10 AM every morning. They move because thousands of people are all making different bets at the same time, and right now, more of them are selling than buying.
That is not manipulation. That is just the market doing its thing.
Also Read:Â Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026
Why is Bitcoin dumping right now?
Long-term holders are selling due to the four-year market cycle, quantum computing concerns, and capital flowing into AI. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan laid this out publicly on X.
Is Jane Street responsible for Bitcoin’s drop?
No credible evidence supports this. Hougan dismissed it directly, calling it part of a rotating blame game that targets a new firm every week.
When will Bitcoin stop dumping?
Hard to say with certainty. Hougan thinks the bottom is close. Willy Woo sees pressure holding into Q4 2026. CryptoQuant’s historical models point to a June to October 2026 window.
Should I buy Bitcoin during this dip?
Nobody can answer that for you. Your entry depends on what you are holding, how long you plan to hold it, and how much red you can stomach in the meantime. Talk to a financial advisor if you are unsure.
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Disclaimer:
Look, we’re just journalists reporting the news here, not your financial advisors. Everything you read above is for information purposes only. Crypto is wild, unpredictable, and can absolutely wreck your savings if you’re not careful. Never invest money you can’t afford to lose. Seriously, we mean it. Do your own research, talk to actual licensed financial professionals, and remember that past performance means absolutely nothing when it comes to future results. The crypto market can turn on a dime, and what’s hot today might be toast tomorrow. We’re not responsible for your investment decisions, good or bad. Trade smart, stay safe, and don’t bet the farm on anything you read on the internet, including this article.
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